If you calculate in the "new" cost of a 3x400w MH and 4x54 T5 setup, along with the new cost of a 1/2 HP chiller than you probably need with the MH/T5, but might not need with the LEDs, then the payback period would substantially decrease. If you compare used cost, or if you already have that setup, then the payback probably isn't there, and you can't figure used LED vs used MH yet.
I agree that the payoff is probably better for a 3x250W MH system than a 3x400W system because MH/T5 does not scale linearly with the wattage, where as LEDs pretty much do.
Comparing "new" costs, by my calculations, LEDs make sense for my new 125 gallon, with the payoff somewhere around 4-5 years. In general, for smaller tanks, they probably make more sense, as the cost of a chiller becomes more relevant (the $500 for a new 1/10 HP chiller will buy plenty of DIY LED power for a 75 gallon).
I think in a couple years, the balance will tip strongly to LEDs. Right now you can put together a very nice 100-300W DIY LED fixture for around $4/watt. I expect competition to drive the cost of the manufactured units down to roughly on par with the DIY cost, and I expect the cost of the LEDs themselves to continue to fall. If we see costs in the $2/watt range, we'll see LEDs take a huge portion of the market. I wonder if anyone will be running MH or T5 in 5 years. Plus, you get the advantage of control over individual LEDs-- dusk/dawn, moonlight cycles, etc. that you just can't get with any other technology.